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The Immigration Law - again!
Posted on 09/01/2004 10:23 am
Re: The Immigration Law - again!
K Rider - What Daniel actually meant (and wrote) was the unemployment figure in the UK is 45% *lower than* in Germany.
E.g. Germany: 10%
UK: 55% out of 10% = 5,5%
Anyway comparing the "official government" unemployment figures between any two countries is fairly meaningless, as each government has their own way of statistical manipulation. Here are some examples how the government is cheating the statistics here in Germany:
- one does not count as unemployed while sent to training by the Arbeitsamt.
- there is a new scheme for promoting the very low-end self-employment (called "Ich AG"
. People who start under this program are low earners, receive benefits and are out of the unemployment statistics
- long term unemployed who are paid by the Sozialamt are not in the unemployed figures
- elderly unemployed over 60 (or maybe even 55?) are not in the unemployed figures
The real unemployment figure in Germany is probably more like 15-20%
In the UK the number of low-end part time jobs is much higher than in Germany, so there is 'hidden' unemployment in a sense that an ever decreasing number of people enjoys full time permanent work. You may have heared of the growing "working poor class"?
Marc
Posted on 09/01/2004 12:24 pm
Re: The Immigration Law - again! (Wrong Data, K. Rider?)
Hi Marc,
Your point is valid that integration (and therefore some migration) will take place in the EU in the coming years, but actually, this is precisely the main reasons why the EU was created, isnt it? To promote integration and to benefit from it in a common market. I just do not think that this will lead to mass-migration towards the richest countries as many might fear. I am still convinced that skilled migration is definitely beneficial for any economy and that it regulates by itself to achieve a balance among countries given by market forces of supply and demand. If this was the case, most of the qualified workers from Portugal or Greece would have emigrated in the past years to Germany, the UK or Sweden (just as examples of significant income differentials within the EU). By the way I found today an interesting article in the FTD about this topic:
http://www.ftd.de/...230763322.html?nv=hpm
Moreover, I fully agree with you on the point that it would be difficult for any politician to justify to the public, why qualified migration is beneficial. After all, politicians are at first interested in their own goals, and using populist arguments putting migration against employment is probably the easiest and cheapest way to get votes, even if they know those arguments are wrong. But the wide mass of population simply assumes the easy formula more immigrants = less jobs for locals without considering the overall context.
You are also right asserting that unemployment statistics can be (and are) manipulated, but this probably would not lead to such enormous biases. To my knowledge, in economics only unemployed people ABLE and WILLING to work (i.e. actively seeking jobs) are considered to calculate the unemployment rate, this practice is used in most countries. That is the reason why in Germany elderly people, people supported by the Sozialamt and people in training programs are not counted (the same would apply for housewives, students or disabled people). On the other hand people receiving unemployment support, but are not really willing to work and knowingly dismiss jobs, do count. To what extent these groups are or not really able and willing to work is questionable and this is where manipulation potential exists, but as I said before, this is a general economic definition and not only applied in Germany. Seasonal adjustments also need to be considered (Saison bereinigt). Anyway one can see why the unemployment rate is difficult to be accurately and objectively calculated.
Many thanks for clarifying K.Rider´s misunderstanding and concern the UK would be collapsing with the highest unemployment ever experienced in history . The figures I obtained are 9.1% for Germany and 5.1% for the UK (source Bloomberg)
Regards
pramod
Member since 28/11/2003
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